WINDWATER BLOG

The Lower End of the Housing Market is not only Disappearing, it is Impacting Pending and Closed Sales

The active listing inventory increased by 99 homes in the past two weeks, up 2%, and now totals 4,708. Expect the inventory to increase from now through mid-Summer. Last year, there were 5,016 homes on the market, 308 more than today.

 

This year, 20% fewer homes have come on the market below $500,000 today compared to last year, and there have been 29% fewer closed sales so far this year. Fewer and fewer homes and condominiums are now priced below $500,000. This price range is slowly disappearing.

013-newport-beach-home-christiano-homes-1050x700Demand, the number of pending sales over the prior month, increased in the past two-weeks by 64 pending sells, up 3%, and now totals 2,602. Last year, there were 2,957 pending sales, 14% more than today.

 

The average list price for all of Orange County remained at $1.8 million over the past two weeks. This number is high due to the mix of homes in the luxury ranges that sit on the market and do not move as quickly as the lower end.

 

For homes priced below $750,000, the market is HOT with an expected market time of just 32 days. This range represents 34% of the active inventory and 57% of demand.

 

For homes priced between $750,000 and $1 million, the expected market time is 43 days, a hot seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). This range represents 18% of the active inventory and 22% of demand.

 

For homes priced between $1 million to $1.25 million, the expected market time is 68 days, a slight seller’s market (between 60 and 90 days).

 

For luxury homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 88 days to 95. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 142 to 155 days. For luxury homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 202 days to 187 days. For luxury homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 296 to 313 days.

 

The luxury end, all homes above $1.25 million, accounts for 39% of the inventory and only 14% of demand.

 

The expected market time for all homes in Orange County remained at 54 days in the past two weeks, a hot seller’s market (fewer than 60 days). From here, we can expect the market time to remain below 60-days through May.

Distressed homes, both short sales and foreclosures combined, make up only 0.8% of all listings and 1.5% of demand. There are only 18 foreclosures and 21 short sales available to purchase today in all of Orange County.

 

Chart April

For homes priced between $1.25 million and $1.5 million, the expected market time increased from 88 to 95 days. For homes priced between $1.5 million and $2 million, the expected market time increased from 142 to 155 days. For homes priced between $2 million and $4 million, the expected market time decreased from 202 days to 187. For homes priced above $4 million, the expected market time increased from 296 to 313 days. At 313 days, a seller would be looking at placing their home into escrow around mid-February 2019.